The IKOT.PH Strategic Research Team reviewed and studied all the senatorial surveys conducted (by Pulse Asia) in the last four election cycles (2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022). Starting from the Pre-filing surveys (conducted about one year before election day) to the Pre-campaign surveys (conducted after the filing of the certificates of candidacy but before the start of the official campaign period) and up to the Campaign Proper surveys (conducted during the official campaign period), the ups and downs, or reds and greens, trajectory of the eventual winners were traced in all of the seven surveys during the entire period of each election cycle (2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022).
THE LOWEST WINNERS
In the last four election cycles, the lowest-ranked eventual winner in a survey conducted about one year before election day was Win Gatchalian in the 2016 elections. He ranked 31st in the May 3 – June 5, 2015 survey (the survey conducted about one year before the 2016 elections). He rank 10th on election day.
In the 2022 elections, the lowest-ranked winner was Robin Padilla. He ranked 26th in the September 6 – 11, 2021 survey, the first time he was included in the senatorial survey. He ranked 1st on election day.
In the 2019 elections, the lowest-ranked winner was Francis Tolentino. He ranked 27th in the September 1 – 7, 2018 survey, down two ranks from the June 15 – 21, 2018 survey (the survey conducted about one year before the 2019 elections). He ranked 9th on election day. In the same election, Bong Go ranked 26th in the June 15 – 21, 2018 survey (the survey conducted about one year before the 2019 elections). He ranked 3rd on election day.
In the 2016 elections, the lowest-ranked winner was Joel Villanueva. He ranked 26th in the September 8 – 14, 2015 survey, down two ranks from the May 30 – June 5, 2015 survey (the survey conducted about one year before the 2016 elections). He ranked 2nd on election day.
In the 2013 elections, the lowest-ranked winner was Bam Aquino. He ranked 26th in the May 20 – 26, 2012 survey (the survey conducted about one year before the 2013 elections). He ranked 7th on election day.
Nobody ranked lower than 31st ever made it to the magic twelve, or winner’s circle, at least in the last four elections.
In sum, ranked 31st in the survey conducted about one year before election day is the lowest ever rank of an eventual winner in the last four election cycles (2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022). Nobody ranked lower than 31st ever made it to the magic twelve, or winner’s circle, at least in the last four elections.
THE WEIRDEST WINNER
In the 2019 elections, Francis Tolentino never once entered the magic twelve, or winner’s circle, in any of the seven Pre-filing, Pre-campaign and Campaign Proper surveys, yet he surprisingly ranked 9th on election day.
The trajectory of Tolentino was ranked 25th, then 27th, then 17th, then 18th, then 14th, then 17th, then 15th, and, finally, 9th.
THE WEIRDEST LOSER
In the 2016 elections, Serge Osmeña never once went outside the magic twelve, or winner’s circle, in any of the seven Pre-filing, Pre-campaign and Campaign Proper surveys, yet he tragically ranked 14th on election day.
The trajectory of Osmeña was ranked 8th, then 9th, then 8th, then 7th, then 6th, then 9th, then 9th, and, finally, 14th.
THE 2022 SENATORIAL ELECTION WINNERS
Pre-filing surveys were the June 7-16, 2021 and September 6-11, 2021 surveys. Pre-campaign surveys were the December 1-6, 2021 and January 19-24, 2022 surveys. The campaign period officially started on February 8, 2022. Therefore, the February 18-23, 2022 survey and onwards were already considered as Campaign Proper surveys.
There were six Reelectionists in the 2022 elections: four of them won; two lost. The four Reelectionists who won were Win Gatchalian (10th in 2016), Migz Zubiri (6th in 2016), Joel Villanueva (2nd in 2016) and Risa Hontiveros (9th in 2016). The other two Reelectionists, Dick Gordon (5th in 2016) and Leila De Lima (12th in 2016), lost their bid for reelection and ranked 22nd and 23rd respectively.
Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero, Alan Cayetano, JV Ejercito and Jinggoy Estrada were Returning: Legarda from being the representative of the lone district of Antique, Escudero from being the Governor of Sorsogon, and Cayetano from being the representative of the 1st district of Taguig-Pateros and Speaker of the House of Representatives. The other Returning, Ejercito and Estrada, lost in the previous election of 2019 where they ranked 13th and 15th respectively.
Robin Padilla first ranked 26th then ended up ranked 1st.
Robin Padilla first ranked 26th then ended up ranked 1st. Padilla, along with Raffy Tulfo, were the only real First-timers who won in the 2022 senatorial elections.
Villanueva first ranked 23rd then ended up ranked 9th.
Ejercito first ranked 21st then ended up ranked 10th.
Mark Villar first ranked 20th then ended up ranked 6th. While Villar was actually also a first-time winner, his mother is an incumbent Senator, and his father was a former Senator and former Senate President.
THE 2019 SENATORIAL ELECTION WINNERS
Pre-filing surveys were the June 15-21, 2018 and September 1-7, 2018 surveys. Pre-campaign surveys were the December 14-21, 2018 and January 26-31, 2022 surveys. The campaign period officially started on February 12, 2019. Therefore, the February 24-28, 2019 survey and onwards were already considered as Campaign Proper surveys.
There were seven Reelectionists in the 2019 elections: five of them won; two lost. The five Reelectionists who won were Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, Sonny Angara, Koko Pimentel and Nancy Binay. The other Reelectionists, JV Ejercito and Bam Aquino, lost their bid for reelection and ranked 13th and14th respectively.
Pia Cayetano, Lito Lapid and Bong Revilla were Returning; Cayetano from being the representative of the 2nd district of Taguig-Pateros, Lapid from losing as a mayoral candidate of Angeles City, Pampanga, and Revilla from a 3-year break in politics. Jinggoy Estrada, who was returning (from a 3-year break in politics), ranked 15th and lost.
Francis Tolentino never entered the Magic 12 during the Pre-filing, Pre-campaign and Campaign Proper surveys, ranking as low as 27th, but ended up ranked 9th. Tolentino also ran but lost (ranked 13th) in the 2016 elections.
Bong Go first ranked 26th then ended up ranked 3rd.
Bong Go first ranked 26th then ended up ranked 3rd. Go, along with Bato Dela Rosa, were the only real First-timers who won in the 2019 senatorial elections. While Tolentino was a first-time winner in a senatorial election, as earlier stated, his 2019 victory was already his 2nd attempt having previously ran but lost in the 2016 race. As for Imee Marcos who was actually also a first-time winner, her brother was a former Senator, and her father was a former Senator, Senate President and President.
THE 2016 SENATORIAL ELECTION WINNERS
Pre-filing surveys were the May 30-Jun 5, 2015 and September 8-14, 2015 surveys. Pre-campaign surveys were the December 4-11, 2015 and January 24-28, 2015 surveys. The campaign period officially started on February 9, 2016. Therefore, the March 8-13, 2016 survey and onwards were already considered as Campaign Proper surveys.
There were five Reelectionists in the 2016 elections: three of them won; two lost. The three Reelectionists who won were Frank Drilon (4th in 2010), Tito Sotto (9th in 2010) and Ralph Recto (8th in 2010). The other Reelectionists, Serge Osmeña (10th in 2010) and TG Guingona (12th in 2010), lost their bid for reelection and ranked14th and 17th respectively.
Osmeña never went out of the magic twelve, or winner’s circle, in all the Pre-filing, Pre-campaign and Campaign Proper surveys, but lost on election day.
Ping Lacson and Kiko Pangilinan were Returning; both from a 3-year break in politics, although they accepted appointive positions in the 2010-2016 Aquino administration. Dick Gordon and Migz Zubiri were likewise Returning; both from having lost in the previous 2013 election where they ranked 13th and 14th respectively.
Win Gatchalian first ranked 31st then ended up ranked 10th.
Win Gatchalian first ranked 31st then ended up ranked 10th.
Joel Villanueva first ranked 24th, and even went as low as 26th, then ended up ranked 2nd.
Gatchalian and Villanueva, along with Manny Pacquiao and Leila De Lima, were the only real First-timers who won in the 2016 senatorial elections.
While Hontiveros was actually also a first-time winner in a senatorial election, her 2016 victory was already her 3rd attempt having previously ran and lost in the 2010 and 2013 races.
THE 2013 SENATORIAL ELECTION WINNERS
Pre-filing surveys were the May 20-26, 2012 and August 31-Sep 7, 2012 surveys. Pre-campaign surveys were the November 23-29, 2012 and January 19-30, 2013 surveys. The campaign period officially started on February 12, 2013. Therefore, the February 24-28, 2013 survey and onwards were already considered as Campaign Proper surveys.
There were six Reelectionists in the 2013 elections: they all won. Loren Legarda (1st in 2007), Chiz Escudero (2nd in 2007), Alan Cayetano (9th in 2007), Gringo Honasan (10th in 2007), Sonny Trillanes (11th in 2007) and Koko Pimentel (12th in 2007) were all Reelectionists.
There were five Returning in the 2013 elections: they all lost. Dick Gordon, Migz Zubiri, Jun Magsaysay, Jamby Madrigal and Ernie Maceda were Returning. Gordon and Madrigal lost in the previous election of 2010 where they both ran for President. Zubiri is considered as Returning as he previously served for more than 4 years as a Senator even if he eventually resigned and was replaced by Pimentel. Magsaysay last served as a Senator in a term that ended in 2007. Maceda last served as a Senator in a term that ended in 1998.
Bam Aquino first ranked 26th, and never got inside the magic twelve, or winner’s circle, until the campaign period started, then ended up ranked 7th.
Bam Aquino first ranked 26th, and never got inside the magic twelve, or winner’s circle, until the campaign period started, then ended up ranked 7th.
Grace Poe first ranked 21st then ended up ranked 1st.
While, technically, there were six First-timers who won in the 2013 senatorial elections, all of them either have relatives whom they replaced as Senators or have very prominent nationally-known relatives: (1) Poe is the daughter of Fernando Poe who ran and lost as President in the immediately preceding 2010 presidential elections; (2) Nancy Binay is the daughter of Jojo Binay who was the incumbent Vice President from 2010-2016; (3) Sonny Angara is the son of Senator Edong Angara who was term-limited already in 2013; (4) Aquino is the cousin of Noynoy Aquino who was Senator until 2010 and was the incumbent President from 2010-2016; (5) Cynthia Villar is the wife of Senator Manny Villar who was term-limited already in 2013; (6) JV Ejercito is the brother of Senator Jinggoy Estrada who was an incumbent Senator, and son of Erap Estrada who was a former Senator and former President.
THE 2025 SENATORIAL ELECTION CANDIDATES
The June 17-24, 2024 survey (by Pulse Asia) is the survey conducted about one year before the 2025 elections (May 12, 2025).
To reiterate, ranked 31st in the survey conducted about one year before election day is the lowest ever rank of an eventual winner in the last four election cycles (2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022). Nobody ranked lower ever made it to the magic twelve, or winner’s circle, at least in the last four elections. Win Gatchalian ranked 31st in the May 3 – June 5, 2015 survey (the survey conducted about one year before election day). He rank 10th on election day.
For this 2025 election cycle, ranked 31st in the June 17-24, 2024 Pre-filing survey (the survey conducted about one year before the 2025 elections) is Benhur Abalos. In the same survey, the others outside the magic twelve, or winner’s circle, are Bam Aquino (ranked 28th), Francis Tolentino (ranked 20th), Willie Ong (ranked 19th), Gringo Honasan (ranked 18th), Abby Binay (ranked 16th), Kiko Pangilinan (ranked 15th), and Lito Lapid (ranked 14th).
Is there hope or chance for any of the candidates who happen to be ranked lower than 31st?
In the September 6-13, 2024 Pre-filing survey, ups and downs were already recorded and must be taken note of by all candidates and their campaign teams, lest they miss the lesson of history and fail in their future. The big jumps were jumps by at least eight ranks higher. The big falls were falls by at least four ranks lower. All other movements were by a mere one to two jumps higher or one to two falls lower. And, by the way, 12 out of the 31 on the September 6-13 Pre-filing survey list DID NOT FILE, making the official candidates on the list only 19.
Abby Binay went up nine ranks from ranked 16th to ranked 7th.
Bam Aquino went up nine ranks from ranked 28th to ranked 19th.
Benhur Abalos went up eight ranks from ranked 31st to ranked 23rd.
On the other hand, Imee Marcos went down four ranks from ranked 7th to ranked 11th.
Likewise, Francis Tolentino went down four ranks from ranked 20th to ranked 24th.
To be sure, without a doubt, these movements will continue.
Will we see ranked 31st in the survey conducted about one year before election day as one of the eventual winners in the 2025 elections? Is there hope or chance for any of the candidates who happen to be ranked lower than 31st? Will the threshold be higher, or lower, this time around? Will there be change? Will there be none? As the song goes, “que sera sera…..” Good luck to one and all!
