First and foremost, awareness. Without awareness, there can be no conversion. Without conversion, there will be no election into office.
In the last four elections held in the country, from 2010-2019, all winning senatorial candidates had an awareness rating of more than 90% in the last survey conducted before election day, except only four out of a total of 48 winning senatorial candidates: two in 2010, one in 2013, one in 2016, and zero in 2019. This exception is an average of less than a tenth of all winning senatorial candidates in the last four elections held in the country. To reiterate, from 2010-2019, only four out of 48 senators won with an awareness rating of less than 90% in the last survey conducted before election day.
“From 2010-2019, only four out of 48 senators won with an awareness rating of less than 90% in the last survey conducted before election day.”
TG Guingona (82% awareness rating and rank #12 in the survey; rank #12 in the election) and Serge Osmeña (89% awareness rating and rank #10 in the survey; rank #10 in the election) got less than 90% awareness rating in 2010, and they won. Sonny Angara (89% awareness rating and rank #8 in the survey; rank #6 in the election) got less than 90% awareness in 2013, and he won. Risa Hontiveros (88% awareness rating and rank #9 in the survey; rank #9 in the election) got less than 90% awareness in 2016, and she won. All winning senatorial candidates in the 2019 election had an awareness rating of more than 90% in the last survey conducted before election day, the lowest being Francis Tolentino (92% awareness rating and rank #17 in the survey; rank #9 in the election).
“All winning senatorial candidates in the 2019 election had an awareness rating of more than 90% in the last survey conducted before election day.”
| Candidate | Year | Awareness Rating | Survey Ranking | Election Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TG Guingona | 2010 | 82% | #12 | #12 |
| Serge Osmeña | 2010 | 89% | #10 | #10 |
| Sonny Angara | 2013 | 89% | #8 | #6 |
| Risa Hontiveros | 2016 | 88% | #9 | #9 |
| Francis Tolentino | 2019 | 92% | #17 | #9 |
It is to be noted, however, that TG Guingona (86% awareness rating and rank #13 in the survey; rank #17 in the election) and Serge Osmeña (93% awareness rating and rank #9 in the survey; rank #14 in the election) both lost in their reelection bids in 2016. TG Guingona was still not able to increase his awareness rating to 90% or more, and he lost. Serge Osmeña was already able to increase his awareness rating to more than 90%, but he still lost.
It is to be noted, also, that Sonny Angara (97% awareness rating and rank #6 in the survey; rank #6 in the election) won in his reelection bid in 2019. In this election, his awareness rating almost reached 100% already.
It is to be noted, likewise, that Risa Hontiveros is still up for reelection only in 2022, so it remains to be seen what will happen to her reelection bid.
Anyway, given the historical data above, it can clearly and convincingly be concluded that if the awareness rating of the senatorial candidate is less than 90% in the last survey conducted before election day, the possibility of eventually winning the election is an average of less than 10% based on data from the last four elections held in the country from 2010-2019.
“If the awareness rating of the senatorial candidate is less than 90% in the last survey conducted before election day, the possibility of eventually winning the election is an average of less than 10%.”
If the basis would be on a per election basis, it will be 0% based on the 2019 elections (which should be the ideal basis as this is the immediately preceding election before the 2022 election); it would be 8% based on the 2016 elections; it would be 8% based on the 2013 elections; and it would be 17% based on the 2010 elections (which would already be more than a decade before the 2022 election so this is not an ideal basis). Based on these figures, it would be safest to peg the success rate at 0%-10% for senatorial candidates with an awareness rating of less than 90%.
“It would be safest to peg the success rate at 0%-10% for senatorial candidates with an awareness rating of less than 90%.
Therefore, for anybody desiring to run, and win, in a senatorial election, before anything else, the senatorial candidate must aim to get an awareness rating of at least 90% in the last survey conducted before election day.
Of course, the candidate need not wait until the last survey to hit that 90% awareness mark. The process must already begin immediately after he or she decides to run for a seat in the Senate. The earlier the candidate hits the mark or gets near it, the faster the candidate can focus on conversion to ensure his or her election.
Truth be told, a candidate can only attempt to convert those who are already aware. The higher the level of awareness is, the larger the target for conversion will be, and the bigger the chances of success becomes.
Well, there are plenty of other necessary and beneficial factors for victory, but first and foremost is awareness.