Are there sure winners in a senatorial election?
The first post-EDSA senatorial election was held on May 11, 1987. At that time, the country still elected 24 Senators. In 1992, 24 Senators were likewise elected, but the first 12 who obtained the highest number of votes served for six years, while the remaining 12 served for only three years. In 1995, only 12 Senators were elected into office.
The second post-EDSA senatorial election was held on May 11, 1992. At this time, the incumbent Senators elected in 1987 were up for reelection. Three among them lost. And this is when this article will begin counting.
“17 incumbent Senators lost their bid for reelection.”
Starting in the 1992 senatorial election until the latest senatorial election in 2019, or a total of 10 senatorial elections, 17 incumbent Senators lost their bid for reelection. In addition, 27 former Senators lost their bid to return to the Senate in this almost three decades of senatorial elections every three years. Four among them even lost twice in their double attempts at a comeback.
“27 former Senators lost their bid to return to the Senate.”
In the latest senatorial elections of 2019 and in the one immediately preceding that in 2016, almost 30% of reelectionists lost in 2019, and 40% of reelectionists lost in 2016. In addition, four former Senators lost their bid to return to the Senate in 2019.
In 2004 and in 1992, a total of three reelectionists lost in each of these senatorial elections. In addition, six former Senators lost their bid to return to the Senate in 2004.
“There is no assurance or guarantee for an incumbent Senator to be reelected into office.”
Given this rundown of numbers through the years, it could be said with certainty that there is no assurance or guarantee for an incumbent Senator to be reelected into office even after serving six years in the position. In addition, there is likewise no assurance or guarantee for a returning Senator to once again occupy the office he or she once held.
“Being a topnotcher in a previous senatorial election does not mean an automatic victory.”
Furthermore, being a topnotcher in a previous senatorial election does not mean an automatic victory in one’s bid to return to the Senate. Mar Roxas ranked 1st in 2004, then lost in 2019. Tito Sotto ranked 1st in 1992, and 3rd in 1998, but lost in 2007.
“Having been elected as Senator for multiple terms in the past does not mean an automatic victory.”
Moreover, having been elected as Senator for multiple terms in the past does not mean an automatic victory in their bid to return to the Senate. Serge Osmeña won in 1995, 2001 and 2010, but lost in 2016 (as a reelectionist) and 2019. Juan Ponce Enrile won in 1987, 1995 and 2010, but lost in 2001 (as a reelectionist) and 2019. John Osmeña won in 1987, 1992 and 1998, but lost in 2004 (as a reelectionist) and 2007.
| YEAR | REELECTIONIST | REMARKS | RETURNING | REMARKS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | (to be updated in 2022) | (to be updated in 2022) | (to be updated in 2022) | (to be updated in 2022) |
| 2019 | Bam Aquino | Rank #7 in 2013 | Jinggoy Estrada | Rank #2 in 2010 |
| JV Ejercito | Rank #11 in 2013 | Mar Roxas | Rank #1 in 2004 | |
| Serge Osmeña | Rank #10 in 2010; Rank #3 in 2001; Rank #7 in 1995 | |||
| Juan Ponce Enrile | Rank #5 in 2010; Rank #11 in 1995; Rank #24 in 1987 | |||
| 2016 | Serge Osmeña | Rank #10 in 2010; Rank #3 in 2001; Rank #7 in 1995 | ||
| TG Guingona | Rank #12 in 2010 | |||
| 2013 | Dick Gordon | Rank #5 in 2004 | ||
| Migz Zubiri | Rank #13 in 2007 | |||
| Jun Magsaysay | Rank #6 in 2001; Rank #3 in 1995 | |||
| Jamby Madrigal | Rank #4 in 2004 | |||
| Ernie Maceda | Rank #6 in 1992 | |||
| 2010 | Kit Tatad | Rank #8 in 1995; Rank #22 in 1992 | ||
| 2007 | Ralph Recto | Rank #12 in 2001 | ||
| Tito Sotto | Rank #3 in 1998; Rank #1 in 1992 | |||
| John Osmeña | Rank #8 in 1998; Rank #23 in 1992; Rank #4 in 1987 | |||
| Nikki Coseteng | Rank #12 in 1995; Rank #17 in 1992 | |||
| Tessie Aquino-Oreta | Rank #12 in 1998 | |||
| 2004 | Bobby Barbers | Rank #5 in 1998 | ||
| John Osmeña | Rank #8 in 1998; Rank #23 in 1992 | |||
| Robert Jaworski | Rank #9 in 1998 | |||
| Ernie Maceda | Rank #6 in 1992; Rank #19 in 1987 | |||
| Orly Mercado | Rank #7 in 1992; Rank #3 in 1987 | |||
| Kit Tatad | Rank #8 in 1995; Rank #22 in 1992 | |||
| Sonny Alvarez | Rank #10 in 1992; Rank #12 in 1987 | |||
| Boy Herrera | Rank #4 in 1992; Rank #21 in 1987 | |||
| Eddie Ilarde | Pre-EDSA | |||
| 2001 | Miriam Defensor-Santiago | Rank #6 in 1995 | ||
| Juan Ponce Enrile | Rank #11 in 1995 | |||
| Bobby Tañada | Rank #21 in 1992; Rank #11 in 1987 | |||
| Orly Mercado | Rank #7 in 1992; Rank #3 in 1987 | |||
| Boy Herrera | Rank #4 in 1992; Rank #21 in 1987 | |||
| Nina Rasul | Rank #15 in 1992 | |||
| 1998 | Freddie Webb | Rank #12 in 1992 | ||
| Nina Rasul | Rank #15 in 1992; Rank #23 in 1987 | |||
| 1995 | Pong Biazon | Rank #20 in 1992 | ||
| Nene Pimentel | Rank #20 in 1987 | |||
| Ramon Mitra | Pre-EDSA | |||
| Arturo Tolentino | Rank #18 in 1992 | |||
| 1992 | Sotero Laurel | Rank #13 in 1987 | ||
| Vic Ziga | Rank #18 in 1987 | |||
| Mamintal Tamano | Rank #22 in 1987 | |||
| Eddie Ilarde | Pre-EDSA | |||
| 1987 | Eva Estrada-Kalaw | Pre-EDSA | ||
| Landring Almendras | Pre-EDSA | |||
| Arturo Tolentino | Pre-EDSA | |||
| Rene Espina | Pre-EDSA | |||
| TOTAL | 17 | 27/31 |
In 2022, there will be nine incumbent Senators who are qualified to run for a second term. They are reelectionists Joel Villanueva, Ping Lacson, Dick Gordon, Migz Zubiri, Manny Pacquiao, Kiko Pangilinan, Risa Hontiveros, Win Gatchalian and Leila De Lima.
Some of them may, of course, no longer run for reelection if they either decide to run for higher office (as President or Vice President) or no longer run at all for whatever reason.
There will also be several former Senators who may decide to attempt a comeback. They are Loren Legarda, Chiz Escudero, Sonny Trillanes, Gringo Honasan, Bam Aquino, JV Ejercito, Jinggoy Estrada, and maybe a few others.
Whatever happens then, this question remains: who among the reelectionists and the returning will be included in our updated list?